With the Social Media World Forum starting in London on Monday, I am reminded of the past social networking sites that have gone the way of the dinosaur (see this very humorous video article on Friendster). With such an emphasis being put on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn, I often think of the social networking sites of the past that had much more clout than they do now. For instance, Friendster was once widely popular in the United States, far surpassing any rival at the time, where as now, it draws 90% of its audience from Asia (as this Time magazine article explains ever so nicely). So, at this time, Myspace began to take most of the traffic directed from Friendster. This was less than five years ago. In the past year, Facebook has overtaken Myspace as the top social networking site in the United States and just a month ago surpassed 400 million users worldwide.

So now the big fish in the pond is Facebook (being valued by this article at upwards of $10 billion). We definitely need to ask ourselves this: does Facebook have staying power in American and European markets that Friendster and Myspace have failed to show? This question can really be argued for and against. I would tend to lean towards the ‘yes’ end as far as Facebook’s staying power, yet we must always try and learn from the past or we are “doomed to repeat it.” Where can Facebook succeed in the American market where these other sites have failed? Now, the qualifier I would put on this is that Myspace did not necessarily “fail,” but it did take a big hit in its clout with other social networking sites. Myspace has brilliantly re-designed itself to become a huge host for musicians. The amount of free music that is available on Myspace is next to none, and it provides an excellent forum for new, up-and-coming artists to showcase their work to the world; all free of charge. Also, we cannot forget that Myspace users are among the most engaged users out of all social networking sites. Friendster, as I pointed out eariler, merely shifted to another, albeit, powerful market.

As LeeAnn Prescott points out in this article, “There’s no denying that Facebook is winning the game thus far – but that doesn’t mean another site can’t jump in and take over. MySpace’s decline is living proof that a major shift can occur in the course of 2 years. But for now, all eyes are on Facebook.” So again, can they make it last? Where I am inclined to say “yes” is based upon the fact that Facebook’s appeal is marketed to a much broader range of individuals. It is simple, easy to use, and, for the most part, honest. We are connecting with our Mothers and Fathers and even our Grandparents on Facebook. I just do not see how easily another social networking site can come in and swoop away over 400 million users. When something gets too big, then it becomes unbeatable. But only time will tell for Facebook. While only two years ago, Facebook was trailing to Myspace in US makets, we suddenly see it number one with a bullet; so the question we should be asking ourselves is not “Will it die?,” but “What’s next?”

With next weeks Social Media World Forum, I hope to be able to bounce these questions around to the experts of the industry and determine where the future lies for social media and networking.

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